One of the few remaining moderate Republicans in the Senate, Sen. Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, is facing multiple primary challenges to his candidacy in 2010 from more conservative opponents.This is to the delight of Democrats who feel they would have a better shot of grabbing another Senate seat in the general election if the pro-labor and pro-choice Specter goes down in the primary.
Roll Call reports Tuesday (paid access) that Specter's base of suburban Philadelphia voters has seen a sharp drop in Republican registrations while Democrats have seen a spike in enrollment that can be attributed to many moderate Republicans switching parties since 2004.
"The result is bad math for Specter, who will likely face a more conservative GOP electorate in the 2010 primary than he did in 2004," reports Roll Call.Specter is expected to face a strong primary challenge from Club for Growth CEO and former Congressman, Pat Toomey. There will also be challenges from anti-abortion activist Peg Luksik and Specter's primary challenger in 1998, Larry Murphy.
David Weigel of The Washington Independent writes of the situation, "Specter’s brand of liberal, pro-labor, pro-choice Republicanism has become less and less tenable in the Republican Party; indeed, many conservatives blame the party’s Republicans In Name Only (RINOs) for hurting their brand and paving the way for Barack Obama’s victory."
Though the shedding of moderate Republicans in recent years means that conservatives have a serious chance of besting Specter in the primary, their chances of winning in the general primary in a state that is generally trending less and less conservative are not good.
Reports Roll Call, "Whoever wins the GOP primary will likely get a hefty challenge from Democrats, who plan to target the seat in 2010. Former National Constitution Center President Joe Torsella has already announced his candidacy, and state Auditor Jack Wagner, Reps. Patrick Murphy, Allyson Schwartz, Joe Sestak and state Rep. Josh Shapiro have also been mentioned as possible Senate candidates. National Democrats concur that any of them would have a better chance of beating Toomey in the general election than Specter, but that the seat will be targeted no matter what."
Allahpundit, writing for Hot Air speculates of the situation, "Would losing the primary to Toomey actually help Specter? If the Democrats run a Blue Dog against him in a two-man race, conservative Republicans might cross over en masse to punish him for his stimulus betrayal. If it’s a three-man race, conservative Republicans vote for Toomey, liberal Democrats vote for the Dem, and centrists from both sides opt — maybe — for Specter."
