With Tuesday's "split" decision in North Carolina and Indiana nonetheless giving Barack Obama a needed shot of adrenaline, experts and observers are coming to the realization that Hillary Clinton cannot win the Democratic presidential nomination.The "Hillary Deathwatch" maintained by online magazine Slate has plummeted in the last two days -- now down to 2.5 percent, down 10 points from Monday. Online speculators similarly see the former first lady as a bad investment. Investors betting on the Democratic victor at the Intrade political prediction markets give Clinton a less than 9 percent chance of winning, down from around 25 percent the day before this week's primaries.
With perceptions solidifying that Barack Obama will be the Democratic Party's nominee in November -- "the question seems not whether Clinton will exit the race but when," writes Time magazine's Karen Tumulty -- Clinton's campaign is still vowing to fight on, and she's scheduled campaign stops in three upcoming primary states Thursday.
But Clinton's campaign chairman said on Thursday he believes the Democrats will have a presidential nominee in June and that if it is not Clinton, she will campaign for rival Barack Obama."She can win the states we need to win in the general election. Why should Hillary Clinton, until there is a nominee with the number of necessary delegates, why should she get out?" Clinton campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe asked on NBC's "Today" show.
"It'll be over early June," McAuliffe said. "We've all said we'll be together at the end. If Hillary doesn't win, Hillary, (former) President (Bill) Clinton, myself, we'll be over there helping Senator Obama. And, likewise, Senator Obama will come together to help Hillary if she's the nominee."
However, the vigorous optimism that accompanied Clinton's campaign even after setbacks earlier in the primary season seems to have deflated.
In a fundraising e-mail to supporters Wednesday night, Clinton struck a defiant tone as she appealed for contributions that would allow her campaign to continue. "Here's why," was the subject line of the e-mail, in which Clinton referenced her "personal determination to keep forging forward."
Taken in the context of her Tuesday setback, and the increasing flury with which her political obituaries were being written, the fundraising e-mail had an almost morose tone to it. She emphasized making sure "every voter has had his or her say," "moving our campaign forward," and "winning together," but the appeal lacked any mention of securing the nomination, let alone the White House.
The Hillary Clinton who wrote to supporters after Indiana and North Carolina seemed a far more resigned candidate than the one who showed up after a solid Pennsylvania victory. An April 23 fundraising appeal said the tide of the race was turning and called on supporters to "continue our success all the way to the nomination."
Tuesday's primaries didn't deliver Clinton the "game changer" she needed, and it's beginning to become clear that although she continues to go through the motions, even she is starting to see the writing on the wall.
Some of Clinton's fundraisers see the race as "all but over," according to the New York Times, although Clinton is resisting calls for her to get out. Even her advisers are telling the Washington Post that they see virtually no chance of victory.
