Yesterday the string of defeats continued, and today we learn that supporters of Clinton's campaign are launching a "stealth 527 [1]." You remember those -- Swift Boat attacks and all? It isn't likely to work.Back in my musician days we had a drummer who hardly ever spoke. He just sat on his stool at rehearsals, a cigarette in his lips, and played his instrument. But one day when we were talking about why some groups made it big and others didn't, he looked up and said:
"People don't let you into their lives unless you create a world they want to inhabit, one that's more exciting and attractive than their own."
He was right, and his observation holds for politicians, too -- especially presidential candidates. To paraphrase the Talmud, "whoever creates one campaign creates a world entire." Obama's 10-state sweep is a reflection of the very different worlds he and his opponent have created. She and her advisors clearly resent that fact, but she's a bear-trap situation now. The more she struggles against it, the more it works against her.Oddly enough, McCain and his advisors seem to have a better sense of this than the Clinton team does. Take this piece [2], in which GOP operative Sara Taylor describes a potential McCain VP as "a conservative, rock-n-roll Republican." While the phrase "rock and roll Republican" may create snickers in some circles, she's showing that she understands the same simple truth that my old drummer pointed out: If your world doesn't seem like an uplifting or positive place, people won't let you into their lives.
The Clinton team, whose greatest strength was Bill's (aka "Elvis's") rock and roll sensibility, still doesn't get it. This time around their theme seems to be "recess is over." It's not working, and yet they show no inclination to change.
It didn't have to be that way. Hillary could have spoken of her dreams and aspirations throughout this campaign. Bill could have used his rhetorical skills to move people, rather than to take ineffective and counterproductive cheap shots. The campaign as a whole could have embraced and usurped the themes hope and idealism -- or at least tried -- rather than mocking and deriding the idea that a new generation could be stirred and uplifted.
The old crop of Democratic consultants she has used has been a disaster for Sen. Clinton. Their advice -- don't back down on your war vote, stay on the attack -- has only added to the voters' impression that her "world" is a dark and negative place.
And the hits just keep on coming. The vapid and counterproductive suggestions offered by these Democratic "experts" show why conventional Democratic Party wisdom is a dry well. Take Dan Gerstein [3], late of Joe Lieberman's last notorious campaign:
"She can't win by affirmatively making the case for herself ...The best thing she can do is either discredit Obama or raise doubts about him. I hate to say it, but in certain respects, it's using the Bush strategy against Kerry against Obama and raising doubts about his willingness to use force to keep the country safe."
It's hard to believe anybody still pays these guys, isn't it? The fact is, Clinton's been using "the Bush strategy" for some time, whether it's by going needlessly negative or by raising the specter of terrorist attack should her opponent win [4]. And here's the problem: It reminds voters of Bush. And voters, especially Democratic voters, don't like Bush.
Following advice like this is a great way to blow a commanding lead and wind up fighting for your political survival. And now Marc Ambinder reports that [5]"allies of Hillary Clinton plan an expensive, stealth campaign to buttress her standing in the must-win states of Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania."
Ambinder adds that "... at least one major Clinton donor with direct ties to the campaign (emphasis mine) said last night that the effort was an open secret among donors," and cites Jake Tapper as sayng that "the group is calling itself the 'American Leadership Project' and is staffed by several veterans of the Clinton White House."
Can she recover from her free fall using negative tactics borrowed from the 2004 Republican playbook? It's possible, but it doesn't seem likely. Once again, it seems reminiscent of a world that Democratic voters and the electorate in general seem eager to escape. And should she somehow prevail this way, it will certainly give John McCain a great way to make the case that he's a more "honest politician" who's more likely to "change Washington." After all, he's opposed 527s since McCain/Feingold.
It's a shame. Sen. Clinton is a brilliant and gifted person. I've always assumed she would be a good president. But the calculations she has made in search of the presidency, starting with that war vote in 2002, undercut her chances and raised questions about her judgment.
Time will tell whether this latest strategem will work -- but so far, people have been less and less inclined to inhabit this campaign's increasingly dark world.
