Senator Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut said today that he will run independently if he loses in the statewide Democratic primary next month, a move that further underscored his increasing vulnerability for his support for the war in Iraq and effectively means that he is willing to run two campaigns within three months to keep the seat he has held for three terms.Under increasing pressure from Ned Lamont, a businessman and political newcomer who has criticized the senator for supporting President Bush on the war and other issues, Senator Lieberman said today, the eve of Independence Day, that he would begin gathering the 7,500 signatures on petitions necessary to run on his own should he lose to Mr. Lamont in the state Democratic primary, which is Aug. 8.
The most recent poll showed Mr. Lieberman 15 percentage points above Mr. Lamont among likely Democratic primary voters. In a three-way race against Mr. Lamont and the Republican Alan Schlesinger, polls show Mr. Lieberman winning with 56 percent of the vote.
Although he appears to be ahead, the fact that Mr. Lieberman is even discussing a possible setback shows how far his fortunes have fallen since he was his party's vice-presidential nominee in 2000 and made his own brief run for the presidency in 2004. This year's Almanac of American Politics says he "seems unbeatable in any general election" but adds, perhaps presciently, that "he could be vulnerable to a challenger on the left in a Democratic primary.""While I believe that I will win the Aug. 8 primary," Mr. Lieberman said in a news conference today, "I know that there are no guarantees in elections. I'm very confident that if every Democrat or even a majority of them vote on Aug. 8, I will be nominated by a comfortable margin."
He added that the heat of August or a last-minute media barrage by his opponent could affect the results.
"My friends," the senator said, "after 18 years of working for, fighting for and delivering for all the people of Connecticut, I want the opportunity to put my case for all the people of Connecticut in November. They, after all, are the voters who have been good enough to elect me to the United States Senate in the November elections of 1988, 1994 and 2000."
For months, as his support in his party waned, Senator Lieberman had not ruled out an independent run. The decision to announce today that he would gather signatures was determined by the tightness of the election calendar this year: Petitions must be submitted by 4 p.m. on Aug. 9, just a day after the primary.
Mr. Lieberman has never been a lock-step politician, and not only because of his strong support for the war in Iraq. An Orthodox Jew, he did not attend the convention that nominated him for the Senate in 1988 because it was held on a Saturday. Describing his beliefs, he said, "We in government should look to religion as a partner, as I think the Founders of our country did," according to The Almanac of American Politics.
Mr. Lieberman won his first term by a narrow margin, then romped to victory by 67 to 31 percent in 1994. In 2000, while he was also running for vice president, he was re-elected to the Senate by a 63-to-34 percent margin.
The senator's remarks about a possible independent campaign may reflect a knowledge of history as well as an abundance of caution. He was a member of the Connecticut State Senate in 1978 when Senator Clifford Case, a longtime New Jersey Republican, made a fatal mistake: underestimating an opponent.
Mr. Case paid little attention to Jeffrey Bell, a Ronald Reagan protégé who was much more conservative than the senator. Instead of running hard against Mr. Bell in the primary, the senator looked ahead to the general election against the Democrat Bill Bradley. But Mr. Bell triumphed in the primary, sending Mr. Case into retirement.
Mr. Lieberman reflected recently on his first election to the Senate, in 1988, when he narrowly defeated the Republican incumbent, Lowell P. Weicker. "I got to be a senator in part because the man who was then senator didn't take me seriously," Mr. Lieberman said. "I'm not going to repeat that."
